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# Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change

## Details

**Authors** van Westen et al.

**Year** 2026

**Publisher** Nature Climate Change

**Discipline** Oceanography

**Secondary disciplines** Climatology

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02730-w) 
10.1038/s41558-026-02730-w

## In authors' words

### Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a tipping element of the climate system, currently has an estimated global warming threshold for collapse of +4.0 °C (uncertainty range 1.4–8 °C). However, such a threshold may not be meaningful because AMOC stability depends on the rate of radiative forcing change, not a set temperature. Here we identify an AMOC stabilizing mechanism that operates on timescales slower than present-day warming rates. Slow forcing permits coherent adjustment of surface and interior ocean properties, supported by enhanced evaporation and reduced sea-ice extent, counteracting destabilizing feedbacks. Using a slow CO 2 ramp (+0.5 ppm yr −1 ) climate model simulation, we explicitly demonstrate the AMOC remains stable up to +5.5 °C of global warming. By contrast, under faster CO 2 ramps, the AMOC collapses at substantially lower warming levels (+2 °C). Our findings demonstrate rate-induced AMOC tipping and imply that limiting the rate of emissions is critical for reducing the risk of an AMOC collapse.

### What they found (results)

Using an ocean-climate model, the researchers found the AMOC stays stable through +5.5°C of warming when CO2 rises slowly (0.5 ppm/yr) but collapses at around +2°C when the same total warming happens faster, showing tipping depends on the rate of forcing rather than a fixed temperature threshold.

## Commentary

### In short

The AMOC's fate turns on the relationship between forcing rate and system response, not on a fixed state boundary — the same distinction (stable vs. collapsed) sits at a different point depending on how fast change is imposed on the whole circulation system.

**Patterns it shows** D, S, R

**Added** 2026-08-14

**How to cite this** van Westen et al. (2026). Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change. Nature Climate Change.