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# Systematic Underestimation of Nonlinear and Synergistic Soil Moisture-Precipitation Coupling in Convection-Permitting Models

## Details

**Authors** Gao et al.

**Year** 2026

**Publisher** Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

**Discipline** Meteorology

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046616) 
10.1029/2026JD046616

## In authors' words

### What they found (results)

A nonlinear decomposition of observational data over the contiguous US attributed up to about 20% of afternoon precipitation variance to morning soil moisture, versus only 6-8% from linear correlation alone, and found a convection-permitting climate model systematically underestimates this coupling strength.

## Commentary

### In short

The paper's core contribution is quantifying how strongly one Earth-system variable acts on another beyond mere co-occurrence, showing that simple correlational framing badly undercounts a real physical coupling.

**Patterns it shows** R

**Added** 2026-09-10

**How to cite this** Gao et al. (2026). Systematic Underestimation of Nonlinear and Synergistic Soil Moisture-Precipitation Coupling in Convection-Permitting Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.