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# Youth Subjective Life Expectancy and Early Labor Market Choices

## Details

**Authors** Finamor et al.

**Year** 2026

**Publisher** Demography

**Discipline** Demography

**Secondary disciplines** Economics

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12792522) 
10.1215/00703370-12792522

## In authors' words

### Abstract

Highlights Survival beliefs elicited at ages 18–26 predict later pension contributions. A 1-SD-higher life expectancy is linked to 5% more pension wealth 15 years later. Job formality, not labor force participation, drives most of the pension gap. This SLE–pension link grows over the life cycle, from 2.5–5% at ages 18–26 to 9–11% at ages 48–52.

### What they found (results)

A one-standard-deviation higher subjective life expectancy reported at ages 18-26 is associated with roughly 5% more pension wealth 15 years later, with the strength of the subjective-expectancy-to-pension-wealth link growing from about 2.5-5% at ages 18-26 to 9-11% at ages 48-52.

## Commentary

### In short

Each young person's self-modeled forecast of their own future — an internal vantage point that diverges from actuarial reality — is the causal variable (P), and this subjective belief is shown to functionally drive later financial behavior, with the link strengthening over the life course (R).

**Patterns it shows** R, P

**Added** 2026-08-19

**How to cite this** Finamor et al. (2026). Youth Subjective Life Expectancy and Early Labor Market Choices. Demography.