[DSRP Evidence](https://dsrpevidence.org/)

# Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions

## Details

**Authors** Sam Abernethy, Danielle Monteverde, Christina Schädel, Brian Buma, Philip B. Duffy, Robert B. Jackson, Susan M. Natali, Ilissa Ocko, Brendan M. Rogers, Benjamin Poulter

**Year** 2026

**Publisher** Environmental Research Letters

**Kind of work** article

**Discipline** Climatology

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24) 
10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

## In authors' words

### Abstract

Warming-induced emissions (WIE) of greenhouse gases from natural sources are a large amplifying feedback that most climate models do not yet represent. This absence risks systematic underestimation of projected future warming and overestimation of remaining carbon budgets. To assess the potential magnitude of these feedbacks, we derived relationships between global temperature and WIE rates from process-based model estimates across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP4-6.0. The warming-induced methane emission rate from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfire combined increases with temperature at an estimated 97 ± 6 Tg CH4 yr−1 °C−1 across all three scenarios, while the warming-induced carbon dioxide emission rate from permafrost and wildfire combined increases at 7 ± 1 Pg CO2 yr−1 °C−1 in SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0. Using the MAGICC climate model, we projected that WIE could add 0.2 °C–0.4 °C of warming by 2100 across scenarios, split roughly equally between carbon dioxide and methane, amplifying post-2020 anthropogenic warming by 20%–30%.

### What they set out to do (purpose)

Quantify how much unmodeled natural-source greenhouse-gas feedbacks add to human-caused global warming.

### Who or what was studied (sample)

Global climate system; process-based emissions models for permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfire under three IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

### How they did it (methods)

Derived empirical temperature–emission-rate relationships from process-based model estimates, then propagated them through the MAGICC reduced-complexity climate model.

### What they found (results)

Combined warming-induced methane and CO2 emissions from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfire are projected to add 0.2–0.4°C of extra warming by 2100, amplifying post-2020 human-caused warming by 20–30%.

## Commentary

### In short

The finding shows a reinforcing causal relationship, warming driving further emissions that drive more warming, that only becomes visible once four separately studied natural subsystems are aggregated into one whole-system estimate.

**Patterns it shows** S, R

**Added** 2026-09-16

**How to cite this** Sam Abernethy, Danielle Monteverde, Christina Schädel, Brian Buma, Philip B. Duffy, Robert B. Jackson, Susan M. Natali, Ilissa Ocko, Brendan M. Rogers, Benjamin Poulter (2026). Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental Research Letters.