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# The Causal Effect of Legislative Service on the Postparliamentary Career

## Details

**Authors** David Schmuck

**Year** 2026

**Publisher** Politische Vierteljahresschrift

**Kind of work** article

**Discipline** Political Science

**Secondary disciplines** Economics, Law & Jurisprudence

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-026-00678-2) 
10.1007/s11615-026-00678-2

## In authors' words

### Abstract

Do members of parliament (MPs) benefit occupationally from serving in parliament? Although previous studies suggest career enhancement, they lack comparable control groups enabling causal inference. Other studies find monetary benefits but rely on unique data sources. I employed regression-discontinuity design to compare narrowly elected and defeated German Bundestag candidates (2009, 2013). Despite adequate statistical power (82% to detect moderate effects) and Germany's institutional features favoring career returns, I find no local average treatment effect on postparliamentary occupational status or management positions. Strikingly, half of the defeated candidates reached top management anyway, suggesting that candidate selection dominates treatment effects. This challenges revolving-door narratives and implies that parliamentary careers reflect intrinsic motivations rather than financial returns.

### What they set out to do (purpose)

To test whether serving as an MP causally improves post-parliamentary career outcomes.

### Who or what was studied (sample)

Narrowly elected vs. narrowly defeated German Bundestag candidates from the 2009 and 2013 elections.

### How they did it (methods)

Regression-discontinuity design exploiting the electoral vote-share cutoff as a natural experiment, with a power analysis (82% to detect moderate effects).

### What they found (results)

No statistically detectable local average treatment effect of legislative service on postparliamentary occupational status or attainment of management positions; roughly half of defeated candidates reached top management regardless, indicating candidate-selection effects dominate any treatment effect.

## Commentary

### In short

The study operationalizes a causal relationship between an institutional role and a career outcome by using a sharp categorical threshold to identify it, and finds the assumed relationship does not hold.

**Patterns it shows** D, R

Shows it makes a difference

**Added** 2026-09-17

**How to cite this** David Schmuck (2026). The Causal Effect of Legislative Service on the Postparliamentary Career. Politische Vierteljahresschrift.