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# Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

## Details

**Authors** E. A. G. Schuur, A. D. McGuire, C. Schädel, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, D. J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, D. M. Lawrence, S. M. Natali, D. Olefeldt, V. E. Romanovsky, K. Schaefer, M. R. Turetsky, C. C. Treat, J. E. Vonk

**Year** 2015

**Publisher** Nature

**Kind of work** article

**Discipline** Climatology

**Secondary disciplines** Environment & Sustainability

**Applied** false

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338) 
10.1038/nature14338

## In authors' words

### Abstract

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. Furthermore, this feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

### What they set out to do (purpose)

To synthesize evidence on how a warming climate affects permafrost carbon stores and to assess the magnitude and timing of the resulting feedback on climate.

### Who or what was studied (sample)

A synthesis of field, laboratory incubation, and modeling studies across circumpolar permafrost regions.

### How they did it (methods)

Expert literature synthesis integrating observational and modeling evidence on thaw-driven carbon release under warming scenarios.

### What they found (results)

The synthesis concludes that permafrost carbon is being released gradually over decades to centuries rather than abruptly, constituting a positive feedback that amplifies climate warming.

## Commentary

### In short

The finding turns on a Relationship: permafrost and climate are linked by a reciprocal causal loop in which each acts on the other.

**Patterns it shows** R

**Added** 2026-09-26

**How to cite this** E. A. G. Schuur, A. D. McGuire, C. Schädel, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, D. J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, D. M. Lawrence, S. M. Natali, D. Olefeldt, V. E. Romanovsky, K. Schaefer, M. R. Turetsky, C. C. Treat, J. E. Vonk (2015). Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature.