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# Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

## Details

**Authors** Timothy M. Lenton, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler, Jim W. Hall, Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

**Year** 2008

**Publisher** Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

**Kind of work** article

**Discipline** Climatology

**Secondary disciplines** Environment & Sustainability, Complexity Science

**Applied** false

[Read it at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105) 
10.1073/pnas.0705414105

## In authors' words

### Abstract

The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

### What they set out to do (purpose)

To identify and assess policy-relevant large-scale components of the Earth climate system that may pass a critical threshold under anthropogenic forcing.

### How they did it (methods)

Critical evaluation of the literature and an international workshop to compile a short list of candidate elements, an expert elicitation ranking their sensitivity and uncertainty, and a discussion of early-warning detection.

### What they found (results)

The authors compiled a short list of policy-relevant climate tipping elements, assessed where their tipping points lie, ranked their sensitivity to global warming through expert elicitation, and described how early-warning systems could detect proximity to some tipping points.

## Commentary

### In short

The Earth system is analyzed as a set of large-scale component subsystems, each of which has a threshold that separates one qualitative state from another.

**Patterns it shows** D, S

**Added** 2026-10-03

**How to cite this** Timothy M. Lenton, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler, Jim W. Hall, Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.