[DSRP Evidence](https://dsrpevidence.org/)

# Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change

van Westen et al., 2026, Nature Climate Change — Oceanography

Patterns: [Distinctions](https://dsrpevidence.org/pattern/distinctions), [Systems](https://dsrpevidence.org/pattern/systems), [Relationships](https://dsrpevidence.org/pattern/relationships)

## In short

The AMOC's fate turns on the relationship between forcing rate and system response, not on a fixed state boundary — the same distinction (stable vs. collapsed) sits at a different point depending on how fast change is imposed on the whole circulation system.

## What they found (results)

Using an ocean-climate model, the researchers found the AMOC stays stable through +5.5°C of warming when CO2 rises slowly (0.5 ppm/yr) but collapses at around +2°C when the same total warming happens faster, showing tipping depends on the rate of forcing rather than a fixed temperature threshold.

## Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a tipping element of the climate system, currently has an estimated global warming threshold for collapse of +4.0 °C (uncertainty range 1.4–8 °C). However, such a threshold may not be meaningful because AMOC stability depends on the rate of radiative forcing change, not a set temperature. Here we identify an AMOC stabilizing mechanism that operates on timescales slower than present-day warming rates. Slow forcing permits coherent adjustment of surface and interior ocean properties, supported by enhanced evaporation and reduced sea-ice extent, counteracting destabilizing feedbacks. Using a slow CO 2 ramp (+0.5 ppm yr −1 ) climate model simulation, we explicitly demonstrate the AMOC remains stable up to +5.5 °C of global warming. By contrast, under faster CO 2 ramps, the AMOC collapses at substantially lower warming levels (+2 °C). Our findings demonstrate rate-induced AMOC tipping and imply that limiting the rate of emissions is critical for reducing the risk of an AMOC collapse.

These researchers were not testing DSRP. The finding is theirs; the correspondence to DSRP is drawn by this site.

[Source](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02730-w)